18 December 2019 live
‘Under 2.5 goals’ and a margin of less than two goals between the sides has been the theme in four of Freiburg’s last five Bundesliga matches (W2, D1, L2). Of the three matches won/lost 1-0 in that sequence, the winner arrived in the second half on every occasion (twice beyond the 75th minute).
Impressively, Freiburg have suffered just one defeat in their last nine league games at home (W5, D3, L1). A run of three consecutive wins (with all seeing the winner arrive beyond the 75th minute) forms the tail end of that sequence, helping maintain their 100% win-rate as a betting outsider in home league games this term.
Despite suffering two defeats in their last three Bundesliga away games, Bayern Munich are vicious in victory, averaging 4.6 goals per-match across their last five competitive wins. A draw certainly seems unlikely in any case, with Bayern producing none from their last seven league games, all of which have produced over 2.5 total goals.
Even more significantly, four (W2, D1, L1) of Bayern’s last five Bundesliga away games have produced over 3.5 goals. All but the defeat in those four games saw Bayern score inside the first 15 minutes, before proceeding to get the next match goal.
Players to watch: Nils Petersen has averaged exactly 1.0 goals per-match across Freiburg’s last seven Bundesliga home wins.
For the visitors, Philippe Coutinho smashed in a brace beyond the hour mark as part of a hat-trick at the weekend.
Stat attack: The hosts have opened the scoring in eight of their last nine Bundesliga home games, taking 17 of a possible 24 points thereafter.
Of the last four Bundesliga H2Hs in Freiburg (all producing two first-half goals), three have yielded a 1-1 half-time scoreline.
Going back to March 1996, no Bayern squad has trailed at half-time in Freiburg in the last 17 Bundesliga H2Hs there.
What time is kick off?
The match begins at 20:30.